Texas in the weather news again!
Apr 27, 2016 10:43:11 GMT -5
Post by rah on Apr 27, 2016 10:43:11 GMT -5
Weatherbell daily update 4/27/16
Why Joe can be so confident predicting the shifts from cool and wet to hot and dry in Texas has to do with the El Nino to La Nina cycle. During an El Nino when Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)in the equatorial Pacific are higher. During a La Nina the SSTs are cooler. The conductive transmission of the temperature of these SSTs to the atmosphere lags behind by a few months. Right now the strong El Nino we have had is decaying. Water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are gradually decreasing as cold water from the depths comes to the surface. But the effects of the El Nino on the atmosphere are still going strong. Thus Texas is in a cooler and wetter cycle. In a couple to three years as the La Nina waters effect the atmosphere Texas weather will again be in a dryer and hotter mode. The deeper the La Nina the more severe the drought will be. Right now most of the major forecasters are predicting the coming La Nina to be moderate to strong. The Scripps Institute however is predicting a very strong La Nina and if they are correct your next drought could be worse than the 2011-12 one you Texans experienced.
So Texans enjoy the generally cooler and wetter weather while trying to keep high and dry. Also enjoy the fact that the severe weather for the last few years and this year has been significantly depressed by your El Nino enflunced weather.
So far this year the US as a whole has had over 150 fewer tornadoes than average and that trend seems bound to continue. But next spring things will be back closer to "normal" and not only should tornadic activity be much higher the US should see it's first better than average Hurricane season for some time.